Carter Bradley

Workforce planning in early careers is notoriously difficult. Among our 200+ members, not one has felt they have a perfect system. Even the most advanced organizations with the most sophisticated, developed programs cite demand planning as a key challenge. 

The reasons are many: Timelines in campus recruiting means hiring is happening for, often, years from now. Hiring managers struggle to predict precisely what they will need far enough out. Finance departments vary as to where they attribute early careers costs. And, there is the perennial problem: Changes. A workforce plan is agreed to. Then, it changes. 

None of this is new. And, in fact, we plan to run a deep study this year of the best demand and workforce planning ideas in the market. 

But, a new dynamic is impacting the already challenging situation: Employees are quitting at much lower rates than normal. 

Quit rates fell to historic lows this fall, prompting executives and news outlets to wonder if there is such a thing as “too low” voluntary attrition. 

The challenges that emerge from this are many; as are the pro’s for companies, of course. But, a semi-hidden collateral impact is the wrench these changes throw into the fragile WFP system companies have built. 

Simply put, companies hire entry level talent based on planned need. Planned need includes projections of attrition. When those go down, companies are left with more employees than they needed. And, those employees are less likely to leave. 

Organizations are responding in various ways: Decreasing early careers demand. Delaying start dates. Giving employees incentives to leave. The jury is still out as to how effectively these right the imbalance. 

We’ll be tracking this dynamic in the coming months, studying how organizations are responding and the impacts of those interventions. And, as always, we’d love to hear from you if you have an idea or observation.